North Korea, which has not been able to bring Kim Jong-nam’s body to North Korea, is expected to deny its involvement in the assassination and put all its focus on diplomatic negotiations to bring back the body.
- The Kim Jong-nam family residing in China will put in all its efforts so that the body cannot be sent over.
It seems that China has already informed the Malaysian authorities that they cannot receive the body and that due to the pressure given by the family of Kim Jong-nam in China, told the Malaysian authorities that the body should be dealt with in Malaysia.
- North Korea will hold negotiations with Malaysia to receive the body.
North Korea can pressure Malaysia with the burden that in the instance that in the instance that the Kim Jong-nam assassination case is not dealt with properly then events on the Korean peninsula can fold out in an unexpected manner.
North Korea recently used the new-Trump administration and impeached South Korean government as a way of manipulating the incident to establish a new policy of isolation and annihilation from the South Korean and Trump government. If Malaysia manages this incident according to South Korean interests, North Korea will threaten Malaysia with the ‘war crisis‘ theory in that it had no option but to go hardcore with nuclear and ICBM tests.
In the instance that North Korea’s pride is damaged, it will raise the threat level that it can not guarantee the security of Malaysians detained in North Korea.
As far as Malaysia is concerned, the state of the Korean Peninsula is not of their concern, but the safety of the nine Malaysians detained in North Korea is serious.
In the end, upon looking at the events so far, it is probable that the Malaysian authorities will probably send the body to North Korea and North Korea will allow for the departure of the nine detained Malaysians and that North Korea will compromise and allow for the investigation of the case to be done over the long-term.
Eventually, the body will be compromised with the release of the detained Malaysian, but the situation will continue, and the North Korean and Malaysian authorities will break relations unless the investigation results are finalized.
Finally it is expected that Malaysia will close the embassy in Pyongyang and close the case due to inadequate information without confirming North Korea’s involvement.
For the sake of such negotiations, there is a high possibility that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or somebody on the level of a director will visit Malaysia from North Korea, and it appears that it will probably be Lee Gil-seong who goes to Malaysia seeing that he has already been to China once on this case.
Lee Yong-ho, the North Korean foreign minister leading the case, is a very talented person in negotiations. He has the ability to combine threats and persuasions and convince others simply with an explanation.